Trajectory

WW: Simple and Clean

25 posts in this topic

What? It's a good song, okay?!

 

Aaaaaanyway.

 

*cough*

 

Player list:

1. Rexozord

2. Blacjak

3. NPM

4. Zilary

5. Lion Wiggles

6. Celairiel

7. Exiled Phoenix

 

Roles:

Werewolf x1 - Standard baddie fare. Kills one person every night. Does not know who the Traitor is.

Traitor x1 - On the baddie side; wins if the Werewolf wins. Knows who the Werewolf is. No other special powers.

Wolfsbane x1 - If the Werewolf eats them, they won't be able to kill the following night. Innocent.

Mason x2 - These guys know each other, and know they're both innocent.

Villager x2 - Standard plain innocent.

 

Other notes:

- The villagers win when the Werewolf is dead. They do not have to kill the Traitor in order to win.

- The Werewolf and Traitor win when all the innocents are dead.

- In the case of a tie, there will be no execution.

- Failure to vote for two days in a row will result in replacement. End of.

- Roles will not be revealed upon death.

- Day 1 will be 48 hours long and end at 12 am CST Thursday, Dec. 8th; people will have all of Tuesday and Wednesday to check in. If everyone shows up super early and you guys want me to end Day 1 at 24 hours, let me know with a unanimous End Day Early vote.

- Execution will be by plurality. Votes for no one are not allowed.

- Private messages are not allowed.

 

If anyone has any questions, feel free to ask me! The game starts.... now.

 

Edited by Trajectory

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Question: if the Werewolf is killed, does the Traitor inherit and the game continue, or is the game over at that point?

Based on parity, we will effectively lose an execution if we choose not to execute Day 1 (with 7 we will lose after two bad executions, with 6 we will lose after one). There are also no investigative roles, so there is no reason not to execute Day 1.

Also, I think we should do a staggered on thread force-claim. First, all villagers should claim (presumably, both Traitor and Wolf would claim). If we get four claims here, we execute purely out of the pool of "villagers". I've got some potential ideas for what we could do if we don't get 4 villager claims, but I will share them if a sufficient number of people think that the idea is good.

To go ahead and show that I'm serious and kick things off, I'm going to go ahead and claim that I am a villager.

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Well the problem I could see with that is that you seem to be assuming you get 4 villager claims - 2 from the actual villagers, one from the traitor and one from the wolf.  I am not at all sure that would happen.  But, let's say it did.  Wouldn't the wolf then assume that the 3 players not claiming were the wolfsbane and the masons and prioritize them as targets.  And, the wolf would narrow down the traitor to the 3 other people who claimed.

Of course, maybe we don't get 4 claims and maybe the wolf or traitor don't claim.  Given what you suggest, why would they?  It paints a bullseye on them.  And, the wolfbane and mason might not want to be highlighted either and might falsely claim to be villagers.

Maybe I'm not understanding what it is you are wanting to do so if I am missing I'm all ears (well, eyes).

 

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38 minutes ago, Rexozord said:

Question: if the Werewolf is killed, does the Traitor inherit and the game continue, or is the game over at that point?

If the Werewolf is killed, the game is over.

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Normally I'd agree, NPM, but I don't think the Masons are particularly useful other than they start out with better default information (two known innocent instead of one) and the Wolfsbane is only useful if actually killed by the Wolf. It would be insanely counterproductive for an innocent role to false claim in this game (especially because it would cast doubt on any counter claim they might choose to make later). If we get four villager claims and the wolf does choose to kill out of the three non-claiming roles, they may eat the wolfsbane (which gives us an extra execution if we execute the Traitor).

If the wolf and traitor choose not to claim, and the innocent power roles agree to claim, then it's all over. If the innocents decide to act as a unit and have only villagers claim, the wolf and traitor must claim or they lose instantly. We're only going to have two executions unless we hit the traitor. There's no point in twiddling our thumbs. We're already in the end-game.

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Okay. So I'm not so sure about claiming, Day 1. I do think that the math is theoretically good for innocents.

Assuming we can decide who to vote for between 4 claimed villagers, you have a potential 1 in 4 chance to end the game day 1. If you don't end the game Day 1, it becomes 1 in 3 and so on for the following days.

With everyday that we don't get it right, we have the potential to lose an innocent at night, making our numbers go down as well as our voting power. 

Its really up to whether or not you want to take the chance. After thinking about it, it's a viable play. It's just so "high risk, high reward" that I'm not sure if I really like it. Role claiming, also, narrows down who the Wolf/traitor need to attack. Meaning, they can .....

Oh. I just read through all the rules again and realized the wolf is the only one with an attack. I suck. 

So, that makes the numbers more in favor of innocents winning with the Roleclaim tactic. 

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I'm wolfsbane.

Vote: npm

She seems to be advocating against claiming and trying to shed a negative light on it. Claiming is clearly the optimal strategy here.

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I am saying that I disagree with Rex that what will happen is the 2 real villagers will claim and that the wolf and traitor will be the other to claim.  I don't think that logically follows.  I am fine if everyone wants to claim.  I just think it will be misleading and not give any information since I don't think it will shake out the way Rex expects.

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I think it will shake out that way and you're just trying to prompt the traitor/ww to follow your plan. Prove me wrong and claim something other than PI. I dare you.

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vote rex. Mainly doing it so I'm not inactive. Also because the randomizer is fun. Oh, no randomizer. Less fun. Also I hate mobile but I literally forgot about this until now and I'm lying in bed

Edited by Exiled Phoenix

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Seems like everyone has shown up, but not voted?

As far as the roleclaiming goes, I'm going to try to verbally process through this...let's say 4 villagers claim, the Wolf now know who to target and the townspeople know who to not-execute, so far. Assuming no one got executed Day 1 and I'm placing the Wolf as a claimed villager and every execution is an innocent/not-Wolf. Night 1, one claimed villager dies, leaving 3 claimed townspeople and 3 unknowns. Day 2, we execute an unknown, turns out to be innocent. Night 2, wolf eats another claimed villager, leaving 2 claimed villagers and 2 unknowns. Day 3, we execute another unknown, turns out to be innocent. Night 3, Wolf eats last claimed villager, leaving Wolf and one last townsperson, thus Wolf can win.

I'm still not entirely convinced on the roleclaiming thing, as it seems like we will only get 3 chances to execute Wolf. I'm not siding with NPM in saying not-roleclaiming seems anti-town either. Or even, Wolf can claim any of the roles first to protect him/her-self and whoever claims later will be more scrutinized...possibly?

I'm voting to tie it up and not have execution Day 1...

Vote: Cel

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3 hours ago, Neopetsmom said:

I am saying that I disagree with Rex that what will happen is the 2 real villagers will claim and that the wolf and traitor will be the other to claim.  I don't think that logically follows.  I am fine if everyone wants to claim.  I just think it will be misleading and not give any information since I don't think it will shake out the way Rex expects.

What do you think will likely happen, then? There's a pretty small number of variables involved.

58 minutes ago, Exiled Phoenix said:

vote rex. Mainly doing it so I'm not inactive. Also because the randomizer is fun. Oh, no randomizer. Less fun. Also I hate mobile but I literally forgot about this until now and I'm lying in bed

Randomly voting is a terrible idea. If we miss the first execution, we must execute the wolf or traitor Day 2 or we lose.

17 minutes ago, Zilary said:

Seems like everyone has shown up, but not voted?

As far as the roleclaiming goes, I'm going to try to verbally process through this...let's say 4 villagers claim, the Wolf now know who to target and the townspeople know who to not-execute, so far. Assuming no one got executed Day 1 and I'm placing the Wolf as a claimed villager and every execution is an innocent/not-Wolf. Night 1, one claimed villager dies, leaving 3 claimed townspeople and 3 unknowns. Day 2, we execute an unknown, turns out to be innocent. Night 2, wolf eats another claimed villager, leaving 2 claimed villagers and 2 unknowns. Day 3, we execute another unknown, turns out to be innocent. Night 3, Wolf eats last claimed villager, leaving Wolf and one last townsperson, thus Wolf can win.

I'm still not entirely convinced on the roleclaiming thing, as it seems like we will only get 3 chances to execute Wolf. I'm not siding with NPM in saying not-roleclaiming seems anti-town either. Or even, Wolf can claim any of the roles first to protect him/her-self and whoever claims later will be more scrutinized...possibly?

I'm voting to tie it up and not have execution Day 1...

Vote: Cel

You seem to misunderstand the concept. We will only vote for players who claim villager (including me) if four players claim villager. We will not vote for the unclaimed power roles because they will be, by necessity, innocent power roles. That being said, since blacjak has already claimed wolfsbane (assuming no counterclaim occurs), the masons might as well claim now, and we can narrow down the wolf and traitor to 2/3 people (or 2/4 if you want to assume that my head is still on the chopping block).

No, we will only get 2 chances to execute unless we successfully execute the traitor, in which case we will get 3. If counterclaims occur, that is good because it narrows our focus.

Why would you not want execution Day 1 unless you are a baddie? We lose an execution if no execution occurs on Day 1. (7->6 from wolf kill, 6->4 from kill and execution and wolf+traitor prevent innocent majority.)

Currently, I am not suspicious at all of blacjak (unless he gets counter-claimed, but I doubt he will), I am leaning toward innocent on Lion, not certain on Cel and Exile, and leaning toward baddie on NPM and Zilary. I'm going to rest my vote on NPM at the moment, but I'll be monitoring things closely in case that needs to change.

Vote: NPM

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Well, I messed up on the time and thought the deadline was later than it was.  So, it is too late for me to vote and so I'll be dead. I intended to vote even not knowing I had the plurality on me. Oh, well. FWIW, I do think it is suspicious to not want a Day 1 execution in this game.

I still don't really understand Rex's argument because he still assumes that people who don't claim would necessarily be innocent power roles.  I don't really see why the wolf and traitor and the villagers would claim on thread because Rex said to which would have the effect -- if he is right and they did this -- of pinpointing the only roles that aren't either evil or PIs.  While he might say those roles aren't valuable I disagree.  If I was the wolf for example I would want to hold off on killing the wolfsbane so I didn't lose a night.  And, I just don't see why he thinks the traitor and wolf would claim at all.  I see little upside to them doing it.

Anyway, FWIW most suspicious to me are Rex (since I don't think his plan helps the innocents) and Zilary (for not wanting execution).

 

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Sorry, guys. Had a late night. Will edit shortly.

 

Edit: Alright, guys. With a plurality of votes (two), you've elected to execute NPM. She is dead, and the game is not over.

 

Day 2 begins.

 

Lion Wiggles and Celairiel are in danger of being replaced if they do not vote today.

Edited by Trajectory

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No Werewolf kill. This means that the Werewolf did not submit a list. I think it's incredibly likely that the Werewolf is Cel, Exile, or Lion (in that order of suspicion). I think Cel is by far the most likely since she checked in quite early and hasn't posted since.

EDIT: After checking, Cel was not online for all of Wednesday (not online since shortly after her post timestamp).

Also, to respond to NPM (on the assumption that she was not the traitor, which I suspect that she was) I do not assume that people who don't claim are innocent power roles. I assume that the people who do claim (villager) are not innocent power roles (i.e. the inverse). Unfortunately, my entire strategy relies on 1) the innocent villagers agreeing to true claim and 2) the innocent power roles agreeing to not false claim. And we know that 1) wasn't met, so the entire thing does not work.

Edited by Rexozord

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Okay, I think I understand the concept better now...I'm a villager. No powers or anything.

Just in case I end up lurking and forget to vote later, I agree that one of the inactives is the Wolf.

Vote: Cel

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Good grief. My phone died and I plugged it in last night and forgot to get back on to vote. 

Do we still have a mathematical chance of winning by roleclaiming and voting for villagers?

im driving right now or I would do the math myself. I shouldn't be on here. -_-

Edited by lion wiggles
...

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The issue with claiming is that NPM can no longer claim (that makes everything a lot murkier). If you have a villager role and have not claimed, you should claim immediately because two people have claimed villager roles.

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